No Plan

Here in the Czech Republic, the Government extended the state of emergency yet again. They are about to close pubs and restaurants again next week ruining the holidays for these small business owners and they are going to regulate shops even more than they had. I think it’s the same situation in many places. The problem is that recent headlines about vaccines have destroyed the plan and now, there is no plan. Let me explain.

Most Governments feel unable to basically tell us that there is only one plan. Learn to live with the virus. That has always been the one and only plan that could possibly be effective…. unless…. they could rush a vaccine that stopped COVID19 in its tracks. But now the cat is out of the bag. The vaccine does not stop people passing on the virus at all. Asymptomatic people remain infectious as do those who get a milder course of the disease. Roughly translated then, the vaccine makes no difference at all except perhaps that some people will experience a milder course of COVID19 and others may not get it all – even that is not certain however.

So what is the end game then? You should be writing to your media and politicians and ask them this very question. What is the plan???

It seems to me there is no plan except a continual state of emergency in which people progressively lose home, jobs, homes and their lives. Forcing people to take a vaccine that doesn’t solve the problem isn’t really gonna work is it.

Meanwhile, our wonderful Minister for Health is reveling in his role as dictator telling everyone how they should live, what they can do and when they can do it (no matter how nonsensical) and scaring as many people to death as possible making public statements like ‘old folk should wish for a ventilator under their tree this Xmas.’ Yes. He did say that. I see no evidence of him or this Government actually planning or preparing for an assault of the health system – which, if what they tell us is truth, they should in truth be doing. Nope. They are clueless. The emperor has no clothes and more and more of us are beginning to see this.

The problem with all of this is politics. The politicization of this whole thing is not helping get it solved. It is simply turning those who would simply follow orders (and even report others for not doing so like they did here under a totalitarian regime) against those of us who say, wait a minute….. we are being lied to here. Divide and conquer – especially if clueless about the plan.

You can argue about the statistics if you wish but if you look at the numbers, COVID19 isn’t as bad as we had feared. I’m not going to under estimate it. It can be a nasty killer. But, if you allow for those who never tested and were sick (many, many people like, for example. Hugh Grant), then the quoted survival rate of 99.97% is probably in the right ballpark for most folk. For older people, its a bit worse – possibly around 97%. But what does this mean? It means that your own immune system, under normal circumstances, is more effective than any vaccine if fighting COVID19. The vaccines are quoted as 70 to 90% effective.

Now, we also know that a percentage of the population is simply immune. Estimates are as high as 30%. This is because you just are or perhaps you had a coronavirus cold and your immune system is already trained like a guided missile to seek out and destroy anything that looks like that (Yes, up to three other types of coronavirus causes common colds). There is speculation that people with certain genes, of certain blood groups and so, have better immunity than others.

Once we have all had COVID19, we will develop an immune reaction to it and the next time we get it, will not be so bad – unless our immune system is destroyed due to a secondary condition. COVID19 will become part of the landscape of infections you can get and, more ad more work will be done on it so that drugs and treatments will become increasingly effective.

So, I think Governments are increasingly looking at a bit of a choice here. Either, they can try to keep us locked down in one form or another slowly killing our economies, way of life and livlihoods, or they can have us learn to live with COVID19. I’m not suggesting we throw caution to the wind either. The Governments must work harder to find ways to protect the vulnerable, strengthen healthcare and so on in order to slowly get us to a place of normality.

The truth is, this has always been the only real viable plan anyway – whether politically you like that or not.